Nov 4, 2025

That figure is slightly higher than recent results from the banks themselves for the first half of the year, which put their respective market shares at Bank of Ireland (40pc), AIB (32pc) and PTSB (20pc). The next biggest lender, according to its own financial results for the third quarter of the financial year, was Avant, with a 6pc market share. That suggests other players including Dilosk-ICS, Núa Money and MoCo each has only a toe-hold in the new lending market here, so far. The degree of concentration is now far in excess of 2018, when then ECB president Mario Draghi said there was a “quasi-monopoly” among Irish banks, which he blamed in part for higher mortgage interest rates here. At the time, Bank of Ireland and AIB had a combined 60pc of the market. The now near total dominance of the big three reflects how much an already concentrated lending market here has been exacerbated by the exits of Ulster Bank and KBC Bank between 2021 and 2023. It is positive for banks, the Morningstar DBRS note says. “The Irish banking sector already experienced its own consolidation wave between 2021 and 2023, becoming a highly concentrated market and attractive in terms of profitability, liquidity, and capitalisation,” Morningstar DBRS said in a note on the potential sale of PTSB. A hold in a market with that level of concentration makes PTSB a potentially attractive takeover target, it said. “We view PTSB's FSP (sale process) as an attractive opportunity for newcomers to enter the Irish market with an already established and solid franchise in the retail segment,” the note said. However, it warns that a cross-border deal involving a bank would face challenges, citing potential regulatory hurdles but also difficulties in terms of driving synergies and savings for a new buyer. “While achieving cost and revenue synergies for retail and commercial banking activities is easier at the national level, cross-border mergers remain difficult in part because of different technology platforms and customer habits,” the note said. A sale would mark a return to full private ownership and would be an important turning point for PTSB, confirming the bank's successful multiyear de-risking strategy and transformation process, the analysis said. It is also a signal that European banking consolidation momentum has resumed, coming amid a period of high merger and acquisition (M&A), although that has largely been within countries rather that cross-border.